Final Moody’s Analytics Prediction: Big Clinton Win

Wall Street rating firm Moody’s Analytics has placed its bet on the presidential election. The firm’s model, which has correctly predicted every president since Ronald Reagan’s win in 1980, is calling for a major victory for Democratic nominee Hillary Clinton. According to CNN, the model calls for Clinton to win 332 electoral votes — 270 are needed to secure the White House. Republican rival Donald Trump is only predicted to win 206. Moody’s stated that a strengthening U.S. economy is helping Clinton’s odds.

But the most influential factors: low gas prices and President Barack Obama’s high approval ratings. “Even those who don’t have a car typically pass a gas station and see prices dropping or falling [on] a daily basis,” Dan White, a senior economist at Moody’s involved with the election prediction, said.

He later added: “Historically, no incumbent president since Ronald Reagan in 1988 has had a surge anywhere close to [Obama’s] magnitude in their eighth year in office.” Moody’s, which predicts the swing states of Florida, Ohio, Pennsylvania, and Colorado will all align behind Clinton, closely matches other reputable forecasters. According to FiveThirtyEight, Clinton is favored to win the election with 71.8 percent odds.

The site’s model predicts Clinton to win 304.4 electoral votes, while Trump nabs only 232.4. Furthermore, they predict Ohio and Florida to lean in Trump’s favor, while Colorado and Pennsylvania will tilt toward Clinton. According to Real Clear Politics, Clinton is predicted to win 305 electoral college votes and Trump 233. Real Clear Politics also sees Pennsylvania and Colorado favoring Clinton, and Ohio and Florida electing Trump.

In June, Moody’s released an analysis of both candidates’ proposed economic policy and forecasted how the varying plans would effect the economy, according to Politico: Broadly, Mr. Trump’s economic proposals will result in a more isolated U.S. economy. Cross-border trade and immigration will be significantly diminished, and with less trade and immigration, foreign direct investment will also be reduced. Even allowing for some variability in the accuracy of the economic modeling and underlying assumptions that drive the analysis, four basic conclusions regarding the impact of Mr. Trump’s economic proposals can be reached: 1) they will result in a less global U.S. economy; 2) they will lead to larger government deficits and more debt; 3) they will largely benefit very high-income households; and 4) they will result in a weaker U.S. economy, with fewer jobs and higher unemployment. Sources: CNN, Politico, FiveThirtyEight, Real Clear Politics / Photo credit: Hillary Clinton/Instagram