Wisconsin Governor’s Democratic Primary: Polls Missed the Mark

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Wisconsin Governor's Democratic Primary: Polls Missed the Mark

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Several factors contributed to the inaccurate polling, including a high number of undecided voters and last-minute shifts in candidate endorsements, such as Governor Tony Evers’ backing of Crowley.

Milwaukee County Executive David Crowley secured an unexpected victory in the Wisconsin Democratic gubernatorial primary on Tuesday, August 11, 2026, beating democratic socialist Francesca Hong. This outcome surprised many, as Hong had consistently led in various polls, some by double-digit margins, just weeks before the election.

Crowley, a moderate Democrat, won with 39.8% of the vote, while Hong received 39.4%, a difference of just over 3,000 votes. This narrow margin was less than 1 percentage point, though wider than 0.25 points, meaning Hong would have had to pay for a recount, which she ultimately conceded.

Several factors likely contributed to the discrepancy between polling data and the final results. Polls conducted in late July, such as a Marquette Law poll from July 22-27, showed Hong with 38% support, while Crowley had only 7%. Another poll by State Navigate from July 23-26 indicated Hong at 44% and Crowley at 15%. However, these polls were taken amidst a fluid primary race with significant last-minute developments.

For instance, Lieutenant Governor Mandela Barnes, who had polled at 15-16%, dropped out of the race on July 30. Additionally, Crowley himself had briefly suspended his campaign in early July before re-entering it on July 18 with the endorsement of outgoing Governor Tony Evers. This endorsement from a popular incumbent likely provided a late surge for Crowley. Furthermore, Hong faced increased scrutiny in the final weeks over past social media posts, including comments about “canceling Thanksgiving,” which some Democrats feared could hinder her chances in the general election. The high percentage of undecided voters in earlier polls, with some surveys showing nearly half the electorate still uncommitted, also made predictions challenging.

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