California Braces for Potentially Historic “Super” El Niño
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California Braces for Potentially Historic "Super" El Niño
- The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's (NOAA) Climate Prediction Center reported on Thursday, August 13, 2026, that there is a 95% likelihood of a "super" El Niño developing this year.
- There is also a 69% chance this El Niño could exceed the strength of all previous events on record since 1950, potentially surpassing the 1982-83 El Niño, which previously held the record.
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California is preparing for a potentially wet and destructive winter as a “super” El Niño is now 95% likely to develop this year, according to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s (NOAA) Climate Prediction Center. This climate pattern has been gaining dramatic strength in the Pacific Ocean.
Forecasters indicated on Thursday, August 13, 2026, that the El Niño has intensified in the last month, with a roughly 7 in 10 chance it will be the strongest such pattern since 1950. The term “super” El Niño refers to a “very strong” event where equatorial Pacific temperatures are at least 3.6 degrees above baseline. There is a 69% chance this El Niño will reach or exceed the record for ocean warming in the tropical Pacific, which has never happened in the historical record dating back to 1950. The previous record was set during the 1982-83 El Niño season.
El Niño is characterized by warmer ocean waters in the central and eastern tropical Pacific and shifts in atmospheric conditions, where typical east-to-west trade winds weaken or reverse. This can direct potent tropical moisture towards Southern California, though the effects can vary by region. Of the three other powerful El Niños on record since 1950—in 1982-83, 1997-98, and 2015-16—two brought above-average rainfall to Southern California. The 2015-16 El Niño, despite its oceanic strength, did not bring above-average rain to Southern California but was linked to significant beach erosion.
Experts, including Alexander Gershunov, a research meteorologist at the Scripps Institution of Oceanography at UC San Diego, anticipate above-average precipitation for Southern California, primarily from cold-frontal storms moving further south. Daniel Swain, a climate scientist for the University of California’s Agriculture and Natural Resources group, noted in an online briefing on Monday, August 10, 2026, that the numbers being observed are “extraordinary” and could surpass all historical El Niño intensity records if they materialize. This strengthening El Niño could also lead to the highest sea levels ever recorded along the California coast, increasing the risk of widespread and damaging flooding, according to Mark Merrifield, director of the UC San Diego Scripps Institution of Oceanography’s Center for Climate Change Impacts and Adaptation.