China’s Drone Production Faces Wartime Shortfall
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China's Drone Production Faces Wartime Shortfall
- A recent study indicates that even with full mobilization, China's industrial system could only meet approximately 60% of its military drone demand in a sudden conflict.
- Published on July 24 in the Journal of System Simulation, the study was led by Professor Zhang Jihai of the National Defence Mobilisation Research Centre at the Beijing Institute of Technology.
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A new study suggests that China’s drone production capabilities might fall short in the event of a sudden war. Researchers from the Beijing Institute of Technology, led by Professor Zhang Jihai, found that even under full industrial mobilization, the country could only meet about 60% of its military demand for drones during a conflict. The findings were published on July 24 in the Journal of System Simulation.
The study utilized an artificial intelligence model to simulate a multilevel supply chain, factoring in drone assembly plants, subsystem and component suppliers, inventories, production capacity, order backlogs, budgets, and the potential conversion of civilian factories for military production. The researchers noted that rapidly expanding production capacity to close the deficit would be challenging due to the time required to establish new production lines.
Modern warfare has demonstrated a high consumption rate of precision weapons, and the war in Ukraine has highlighted the significant role of drones. While China possesses the world’s largest and most vertically integrated drone industry, with a dominant manufacturing capacity and a deep component supply chain, including batteries, this study from a Chinese institution provides a unique perspective on potential wartime limitations. The Beijing Institute of Technology, where the study originated, is known for its strong military research background and is subject to US sanctions.