El Niño Declared: Potential “Super El Niño” to Impact Global Weather
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El Niño Declared: Potential "Super El Niño" to Impact Global Weather
- The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) officially declared the start of an El Niño event on June 11, 2026, with a 63% probability of it reaching "very strong" status.
- This El Niño is projected to strengthen through the winter of 2026-2027 and could rival the intensity of the 1997-1998 event.
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On June 11, 2026, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) announced that El Niño conditions had developed in the tropical Pacific Ocean. This climate pattern, which involves warmer-than-average sea surface temperatures in the central and eastern tropical Pacific, is expected to intensify through the upcoming winter of 2026-2027. While “super El Niño” is not an official scientific term, it is used informally to describe events where sea surface temperatures in the Pacific rise by 2° Celsius or more, which NOAA officially classifies as a “very strong” El Niño. Forecasts indicate a 63% chance that this El Niño will reach “very strong” status during the November-January period, potentially making it one of the strongest on record, comparable to the 1997-1998 event.
El Niño events significantly influence global weather patterns by altering atmospheric circulation and sea surface temperatures. For North Carolina, a strong El Niño typically leads to a warmer and wetter winter. Historically, strong El Niño winters in central North Carolina have often resulted in above-average snowfall, with five out of six such events since 1957 seeing more than 5 inches of snow.
Globally, El Niño is associated with a range of impacts, including enhanced hurricane seasons in the Pacific and suppressed activity in the Atlantic. It can also lead to increased precipitation in some regions, such as parts of South America, East Africa, and the southern United States, while causing droughts in areas like Indonesia, southern Africa, and parts of South Asia. The current El Niño is also expected to contribute to a temporary boost in global temperatures.