Atlantic Hurricane Season Sees Unusual Quiet During Peak
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Atlantic Hurricane Season Sees Unusual Quiet During Peak
- The 2026 Atlantic hurricane season has seen five named storms as of early September, but none have reached hurricane strength, nearing a modern-era record for the latest first hurricane.
- This subdued activity is largely attributed to strengthening El Niño conditions, which typically increase wind shear across the Atlantic and hinder tropical system development.
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As of early September 2026, the Atlantic hurricane season, which officially runs from June 1 to November 30, has exhibited an unusual calm, particularly as it enters its climatological peak around September 10. While five named tropical storms have formed—Arthur, Bertha, Cristobal, Dolly, and Edouard—none have intensified to hurricane status. This nearly sets a modern-era record for the latest first hurricane in the Atlantic, with the current record being September 11.
This decreased activity is largely influenced by a strengthening El Niño in the Pacific, a climate pattern characterized by warmer-than-normal waters. El Niño typically increases vertical wind shear across the Atlantic basin, which is unfavorable for the formation and intensification of tropical storms and hurricanes. Dry, sinking air has also contributed to limiting storm development.
Despite the overall quiet, three of the five named storms—Arthur, Bertha, and Edouard—have made U.S. landfalls. Tropical Storm Arthur formed on June 17, impacting the northwestern Gulf of Mexico, while Bertha formed in July and affected the U.S. Gulf Coast. Edouard made landfall near the Texas-Louisiana border on September 1.
Forecasts from NOAA and Colorado State University (CSU) have consistently predicted a below-normal season. NOAA’s updated outlook gives a 75% chance of below-normal activity, forecasting 7 to 13 named storms, 2 to 6 hurricanes, and up to 2 major hurricanes. CSU’s August 5 forecast maintained predictions of nine named storms, four hurricanes, and one major hurricane. An average Atlantic season typically sees 14 named storms, seven hurricanes, and three major hurricanes. While the Atlantic remains quiet, the Eastern and Central Pacific have experienced a surge in tropical activity, including major Hurricane Lowell.