“Super” El Niño Expected to Intensify, Bringing Global Climate Impacts
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"Super" El Niño Expected to Intensify, Bringing Global Climate Impacts
- The current El Niño event, which began to emerge in June-August 2026, is forecast to become "very strong" and persist through at least February 2027, with a nearly 100% probability.
- Forecasters from the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) and other global centers anticipate the event will reach its peak intensity towards the end of 2026.
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A powerful El Niño event is currently underway and is projected to intensify significantly, potentially becoming one of the strongest on record. This cyclical climate phenomenon, characterized by unusually warm ocean temperatures in the central and eastern equatorial Pacific, began to emerge around June-August 2026. By mid-August 2026, the El Niño had firmly established itself and was showing signs of further strengthening.
Forecasts from the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) and other global modeling centers indicate an exceptionally high likelihood—nearly 100% probability—that this El Niño will persist through September-November 2026 and continue into December 2026-February 2027. Experts anticipate the event will reach “very strong” intensity, with some forecasts showing sea surface temperatures in the Niño 3.4 region exceeding 3°C above normal in the coming months, an “unprecedented” signal according to Professor Adam Scaife of the Met Office. Historically, “super El Niño” events are those where average sea surface temperatures in parts of the Pacific rise by 2°C or more.
The impacts of a very strong El Niño are expected to be widespread, affecting rainfall and temperature patterns across the globe. While specific effects vary by region and season, typical consequences include increased rainfall and potential flooding in parts of South America, East Africa, and the southern United States. Conversely, drought conditions are often associated with El Niño in eastern and northern Australia, Indonesia, southern Africa, and parts of South Asia due to suppressed monsoon activity. Such disruptions can lead to crop failures, food shortages, and an increased risk of wildfires and cyclones. Studies suggest that El Niño variability has become nearly 40% stronger in the last 40 years compared to the preindustrial era, with human-caused global heating potentially intensifying these natural events.