El Niño to Cause Significant Global Heat-Related Fatalities
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El Niño to Cause Significant Global Heat-Related Fatalities
- A new report projects approximately 451,000 additional heat-related deaths globally over the next six months due to the current El Niño phenomenon.
- This estimate, released on Wednesday, September 23, 2026, by the University of Chicago-based Climate Impact Lab, highlights the disproportionate impact on the Global South.
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A recent study by the Climate Impact Lab predicts that the ongoing El Niño could lead to roughly 451,000 additional heat-related deaths worldwide between September 2026 and February 2027. This alarming figure is in addition to existing heat-related mortalities exacerbated by the broader climate crisis. The research indicates that global land temperatures are expected to be 1.2°C above normal in the coming months due to El Niño, which began in June and is anticipated to last through the Northern Hemisphere spring.
The report, co-authored by Professor Michael Greenstone of the University of Chicago, emphasizes that this “super El Niño” is pushing temperatures to levels projected for the climate crisis in 20 years. The most severely affected countries in the next six months are expected to be tropical nations such as Nigeria, Indonesia, Sudan, India, and Brazil. India alone could see an estimated 15,800 additional heat-related deaths. Even the United States is among the top 20 most impacted nations, with approximately 3,500 additional projected heat deaths.
El Niño is a natural climate event characterized by the periodic warming of sea surface temperatures in the Eastern Pacific, occurring every two to seven years. However, scientists note that global warming is intensifying its effects. The World Health Organization (WHO) and the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) issued a warning on September 22, 2026, stating that the strengthening El Niño poses increasing risks to global health, with impacts expected to intensify into 2027. Health risks extend beyond direct heat-related illnesses to include respiratory diseases from wildfires, malnutrition, cholera, and vector-borne diseases like malaria and dengue, exacerbated by droughts and floods. The Climate Impact Lab study suggests that implementing emergency actions like heat warnings, cooling centers, and expanded health system capacity in high-priority regions could save tens of thousands of lives.