Election Prediction Model: Clinton Has 76% Chance To Win

According to a major presidential prediction model, Hillary Clinton has a 76 percent chance of becoming the next president of the United States.

Upshot’s presidential prediction model took the voting history of each state and combined it with nearly 300 state and national polls taken since mid-April and found Clinton to be the clear winner in 14 states and Washington, D.C., notes the New York Times. If these states vote as predicted, she will win 186 of the needed 270 electoral votes to win.

If Minnesota, Michigan, Pennsylvania and five other states that are currently leaning to the left select Clinton, she will have 275 of the electoral votes, which would easily put her in the White House.

It is safe to say that a lot will change between now and November, with the Republican National Convention underway now and the Democratic National Convention set to begin on July 25.

However, at the moment, Clinton leads Trump in national polls by an average of between three and four points — around the same lead that John Kerry had over George W. Bush in 2004 and that Barack Obama had over John McCain in 2008, notes Five Thirty Eight. As of a few weeks ago, Clinton led by between six and seven points.

Five Thirty Eight gives Trump a 36 percent chance to win the election based on polls and a 38 percent chance when considering other factors.

Each party’s convention can have a huge impact on polls and odds, particularly for the incumbent party’s candidate, which could mean that Clinton will see a boost in her poll numbers after the DNC, much as a 1988 RNC that was universally considered to be a success saw George H.W. Bush surge in the polls to defeat Michael Dukakis by a landslide.

Before the convention, Dukakis had a six to seven-point lead over Bush.

Sources: The New York Times, Five Thirty Eight / Photo credit: Hillary For Iowa/Wikimedia Commons