Moody’s Analytics Predicts Clinton Victory

Moody’s Analytics released a June forecast for the 2016 general election, predicting that Hillary Clinton will win the presidency over rival Donald Trump.

According to The Hill, Moody’s model has shown — four months in a row — that the Democratic presidential candidate will win 332 electoral votes, with the Republican candidate picking up just 206. The model is based on historical votes and economic factors.

“With just four months left to Election Day, the chances of an economic forecast error distorting the results are fading,” economist Dan White, who oversees the forecast for Moody’s, said.

Data site FiveThirtyEight also predicts that Clinton will win the presidency, with a hefty 78 percent chance — compared to Trump’s 22 percent.

Based on that model, Clinton is forecast to sweep roughly 343 electoral votes and nearly 49 percent of the popular vote, while Trump would win about 194 electoral votes and 42 percent of the popular vote.

The Hill notes that Clinton is leading Trump in most major election polls: A New York Times/CBS News poll has Clinton leading Trump 47 to 41 percent, a Washington Post-ABC News poll has Clinton ahead by an even bigger margin with 51 percent to Trump’s 39 percent, and Fox News shows Clinton favored 44 percent to Trump’s 38.

“Trump was always ahead in the polls, and one big lesson of his campaign is don’t try and out-think the polls and try and out-think the American public,” FiveThirtyEight founder and editor-in-chief Nate Silver said June 29 on “Good Morning America,” according to Politico.

“And Trump has never really been ahead of Clinton in the general election campaign. He did a great job of appealing to the 40 percent of the GOP he had to win the election, the primary — a lot different than winning 51 percent of 100 percent.”

Sources: The Hill, FiveThirtyEight, Politico / Photo Credit: Hillary Clinton/Instagram