Brazilian Election Polls Show Lula Leading, Renan Santos Gaining Traction
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Brazilian Election Polls Show Lula Leading, Renan Santos Gaining Traction
- A recent AtlasIntel/Bloomberg poll, conducted between July 22 and 27, 2026, indicates that President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva leads the first-round scenario for Brazil's October presidential election with 44.9% of the vote.
- The poll also highlights a notable increase in support for Renan Santos of the Mission Party, who now registers 7.8% in the first round, distancing himself from other contenders like Ronaldo Caiado and Romeu Zema.
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Brazilian President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva of the Workers’ Party (PT) currently holds a leading position in the polls for the upcoming October 2026 presidential election. An AtlasIntel/Bloomberg survey, conducted from July 22 to 27, 2026, shows Lula with 44.9% of the votes in the first round. In a potential second-round runoff against Senator Flávio Bolsonaro, Lula is projected to win with 49.2% compared to Bolsonaro’s 42.9%. This indicates a slight increase in Lula’s lead from a June survey.
Flávio Bolsonaro, representing the Liberal Party (PL), follows Lula with 35.8% in the first-round scenario. He is the son of former President Jair Bolsonaro, who is ineligible to run.
A significant development in the race is the growing support for Renan Santos, co-founder of the Free Brazil Movement (MBL) and current president of the Mission Party. Santos, a right-wing figure who positions himself in opposition to both Bolsonarism and the Workers’ Party, has reached 7.8% in the first-round polling. His party, the Mission Party, was officially registered on November 4, 2025, and Santos announced his pre-candidacy for president in 2025. The Mission Party officially nominated Renan Santos as its presidential candidate at a virtual convention on July 20, 2026.
Other candidates in the first-round scenario include Ronaldo Caiado of the Social Democratic Party (PSD) with 3.1% and Romeu Zema of the Novo party with 2.8%. Caiado was officially nominated by the Social Democratic Party on July 26, 2026, and Zema by the New Party on July 27, 2026. Voter approval for Lula’s government has seen varied assessments, with a Datafolha poll released on June 22, 2026, indicating 38% of Brazilian voters rate his administration negatively, while 32% consider it positive.