Saudi Oil Exports Face Double Chokepoint Threat

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Saudi Oil Exports Face Double Chokepoint Threat

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The ongoing conflict in the Middle East has significantly impacted global oil transit, particularly through the Strait of Hormuz, a vital chokepoint accounting for approximately 20% of global oil production and 80% of the Gulf region’s oil exports. In response to these disruptions, Saudi Arabia has increasingly relied on its East-West pipeline, also known as the Petroline, which runs from its eastern oil fields to the Red Sea port of Yanbu. This pipeline, built in the 1980s, has a full capacity of 7 million barrels per day, with about 5 million barrels per day allocated for export. Shipments from Yanbu averaged 4 million barrels per day in recent weeks, a substantial increase from about 973,000 barrels per day a year earlier.

However, this alternative route is now under threat from Yemen’s Houthi rebels. In July 2026, the Houthis announced a maritime blockade on Saudi Arabia and subsequently claimed drone and missile attacks on two Saudi oil tankers in the Red Sea. These actions target the Bab el-Mandeb Strait, a narrow waterway connecting the Red Sea to the Gulf of Aden and the Indian Ocean, through which an estimated 6.2 million barrels per day of crude oil, condensate, and refined petroleum products flowed in 2018. The strait is a crucial link for trade between Europe and Asia via the Suez Canal.

A closure or significant disruption of the Bab el-Mandeb Strait would force tankers to reroute around the southern tip of Africa, dramatically increasing transit times and shipping costs. For example, a journey from Yanbu to Asia could extend from approximately 20 days to over 50 days. This “double whammy” of threats to both the Strait of Hormuz and the Bab el-Mandeb Strait presents a major challenge to global energy security and could lead to substantial supply delays and higher world energy prices. Saudi Arabia is reportedly considering expanding the East-West pipeline’s capacity by up to 2 million barrels per day to nearly 9 million barrels per day, though such an expansion would take years and billions of dollars.

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