Victorian Premier Faces Uphill Battle Ahead of November Election
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Victorian Premier Faces Uphill Battle Ahead of November Election
- Recent polling indicates that 33 of 88 seats in the Victorian Parliament could change hands in the upcoming November 2026 state election.
- Ben Carroll became Victoria's new Premier on July 28, 2026, replacing Jacinta Allan, and is now working to reset the Labor Party's direction.
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Victoria is bracing for what is anticipated to be its most unpredictable state election in decades, scheduled for November 28, 2026. Recent polls suggest a significant shift in the political landscape, with projections indicating that a substantial number of seats in the Legislative Assembly could change hands.
The Labor Party recently underwent a leadership change on July 28, 2026, with Ben Carroll stepping in as Premier, replacing Jacinta Allan. This change occurred amidst mounting pressure due to poor polling numbers and public frustration over issues like the cost of living, state debt, and alleged corruption linked to major infrastructure projects. Carroll has stated his intention to take a different approach, notably announcing a royal commission into the construction sector as one of his first acts as Premier.
However, the new Premier faces a challenging environment. A Roy Morgan poll conducted from August 5-7, 2026, indicated that while 51% of electors approve of Carroll’s performance, the Liberal-National Coalition holds a narrow lead over Labor on a two-party preferred basis. Other polling data from early August 2026 suggests a “leadership gap,” with Opposition Leader Jess Wilson having a significantly higher favorability rating than Carroll. One Nation has also emerged as a notable force, with some polls showing them with a strong primary vote, potentially leading to a fragmented political landscape. The Liberal-National opposition has also pledged to repeal the statewide treaty law within 100 days if they win the election.