Analysis: Clinton A Lock To Win Election If It Were Held Today

A new study finds that Hillary Clinton has a near lock on the presidency.

If the election were held in August, then Democratic presidential nominee Clinton would be projected to win by a margin of 108 Electoral College votes.

Clinton has a 95 percent chance of winning the election, according to Reuters, which conducted the study and published the results on Aug. 24.

With the earliest of early voting set to begin on Sept. 23, less than one month after the study’s prediction, the Trump campaign needs to move fast, reports Mic.

The Reuters study predicts Clinton would not only win the electoral-heavy and traditionally Democratic states of California and New York, but would also pick up the swing states of Ohio, Virginia, and Florida, Business Insider notes.

According to data site FiveThirtyEight, if an election was held on Aug. 25, then Clinton would have an 85.3 percent chance of winning.

The FiveThirtyEight model has Clinton winning the swing states of Ohio, Virginia and Florida, but she also picks up Colorado, Pennsylvania and North Carolina.

Trump has reshuffled his campaign leadership recently, in an attempt to reinvigorate his brand.

Furthermore, on Aug. 24, Trump delivered a speech in Jackson, Mississippi, in which he pivoted on a central campaign pledge. Rather than forcibly deport 11 million undocumented immigrants, as Trump has been saying for more than a year, he softened his tone to suggest a more nuanced approach.

The Reuters study predicts that overall voter turnout will be 60 percent, with 70 percent of white men, a key Trump demographic, voting and 60 percent of African-American women, who heavily favor Clinton, turning out. Voter turnout for Millennial voters, is predicted to be 13 percent, while estimated Hispanic voter turnout is 30 percent. 

Sources: Business Insider, Reuters, Mic.com, FiveThirtyEight / Photo Credit: Hillary Clinton/Instagram