Democrats Have Strong Chance To Reclaim Senate: Analysis

While the odds that Democrats maintain the presidency continue to increase, so too does the likelihood that the party will regain control of the US Senate. The race for control focuses in on six seats up for grabs — of which, Democrats only need five.

The closely contested Senate seats are those from Indiana, Missouri, Nevada, New Hampshire, North Carolina, and Pennsylvania, notes FiveThirtyEight. Democrats need only three of these seats in addition to their likely wins in Illinois and Wisconsin to win back the Senate from the Republicans who currently hold 54 seats.

According to the Los Angeles Times, the longest period the Democrats held both the White House and Senate was from 1933 to 1945, when president Franklin Roosevelt was in power.

“Having the White House and a Senate majority improves a party’s chances of passing legislation and filling positions such as seats on the Supreme Court that require Senate confirmation,” Kyle Kim and Edmund Sanders note in the Times. “But the most power comes when a party reaches the 60 votes needed to overcome a filibuster.”

“Many of the Democrats on the ballot this year are progressives who have been fighting to raise the minimum wage, expand Social Security, provide paid sick leave and paid parental leave,” adds Robert Reich. “Many are women and people of color who will make the Senate look more like the rest of America.”

Reich adds:

We’d strengthen the ranks of progressives like Elizabeth Warren, Bernie Sanders, Jeff Merkley, Sherrod Brown, and others — who we are counting on in the fight to get big money out of politics, reduce income and wealth inequality, confront devastating climate change, and push a progressive foreign policy.

A Democratic Senate would also give us a line of defense, a countervailing power in budget showdowns, foreign policy lock downs, and threatened government shutdowns.

If Hillary Clinton becomes president, a Democratic Senate will help push her positive agenda, and hold her accountable if she veers away from it. If Donald Trump becomes president — well, let’s just say we’ll need a Democratic Senate more than ever.

But a Democratic blowout may not be the best news for a potential president Clinton.

“If history is any guide, the House GOP’s majority would face more risk from a President Donald Trump in 2018 than from Trump’s campaign in 2016,” Dan Hopkins writes for FiveThirtyEight.

“Or imagine that Clinton prevails in November. If so, the most likely outcome is a continuation of the recent pattern of resounding GOP victories in midterm years. In 2018, Democrats will defend Senate seats they won in 2012 in several red states, including Indiana, Missouri, Montana, North Dakota and West Virginia.” 

Sources: FiveThirtyEight (2), Robert Reich, Los Angeles Times / Photo credit: Architect of the Capitol/Instagram