New Ohio Poll Shows Large Swing Towards Clinton

According to a poll from Baldwin Wallace University in Berea, OH, Democratic presidential nominee Hillary Clinton has a 9-point lead over Republican presidential nominee Donald Trump.

In a four-way race with Libertarian Party nominee Gary Johnson and Green Party nominee Jill Stein added to the mix, Clinton beats Trump 43 percent to 34 percent. Johnson takes 9.5 percent and Stein has just under 3 percent.

The poll also has Clinton beating Trump along independents, 36 percent to 30 percent in the crucial swing state.

“For decades, Ohio has been one of the most reliable bellwether states in the country,” said Baldwin Wallace University political science professor Dr. Lauren Copeland, according to a university press release. “When the polls showed Trump in the lead [before the first presidential debate], some suggested that Ohio’s importance in electoral politics might be declining. However, with less than four weeks to go until the general election, our results are consistent with other recent national polls, and suggest that scholars and pundits shouldn’t write off Ohio’s presidential predictive power just yet.”

While Clinton has a comfortable lead over Trump in this poll, it didn’t mean she was necessarily liked by voters.

“A large percentage of Ohio’s electorate is most passionate about who should not be president,” said Baldwin University political science professor Dr. Tom Sutton. “The core support for each of the major party candidates has stayed largely unchanged, but the bad news for Trump is that more of the undecideds – and some third party supporters – who are now coming off the fence are moving to Clinton.”

The Baldwin University poll is the first Ohio-specific poll to be released after the second presidential debate and the release of audio from 2005 of Trump bragging about groping women.

Before those two events, Trump and Clinton have been in a virtual tie in Ohio, with the GOP nominee gaining a lead throughout September and early October, according to Real Clear Politics.

But the tape and a mixed review debate performance could damage Trump in Ohio, a must-win state for both candidates, but more so for Trump in order to get to 270 electoral college votes.

The Baldwin University poll was conducted among 1152 likely Ohio voters using “online panel data.” The participants were 35.3 percent Democrat, 34.8 percent Republican, and 26.8 percent independent, with 3.1 identifying as “other.”

Sources: Baldwin University, Real Clear Politics/ Photo Credit: Gage Skidmore/Flickr