Pennsylvania Poll: Clinton Leading In Key Swing State

With 49 days until the 2016 General Election, Democratic presidential nominee Hillary Clinton is opening up a lead against Republican rival Donald Trump in the key swing state of Pennsylvania. A Morning Call/Muhlenberg College poll released September 17 shows Clinton holding a nine-percentage-point margin over Trump.

As Morning Call reports, Clinton is up with women, college-educated voters, and voters in southeast Pennsylvania – a densely populated region of the state that includes Philadelphia.

“Those are all cornerstones of Pennsylvania electoral math, and right now, Trump’s lagging in all of those areas,” Chris Borick, director of the Muhlenberg College Institute of Public Opinion, said.

As the poll shows, 71 percent of Republicans in Pennsylvania support Trump, while 81 percent of Democrats are for Clinton. Furthermore, among Independents, 42 percent support Clinton, 33 percent support Trump, and roughly 25 percent are undecided.

“Trump is able to attract some Democrats, but he can’t lose the amount of Republicans that this poll is showing and win the state,” Borick added. “It’s not mathematically possible.”

According to RealClearPolitics, an August 25 through September 16 national poll average shows Clinton leading in Pennsylvania by 6.6 percentage points.

“Pennsylvania has been the most likely tipping-point state since midsummer,” David Rothschild, an economist at Microsoft Research, told the New York Times. “It has been the state to put Hillary Clinton over 270 electoral votes, should she win all of the other more likely states for her. Conversely, it’s also the state that would put Trump over the hump, if he wins all of the states that are more likely for him.”

The polls were conducted over several weeks that saw major Clinton gaffes, including her “basket of deplorables” comment and a public collapse while battling pneumonia.

“I should emphasize that should the election be held today, Clinton would be above 90 percent to win it,” Rothschild concluded. “The uncertainty is that the election is held on Nov. 8, 2016, not today, and Trump still has time to close the race. There are still lingering questions and events that will be resolved.”

Sources: The Morning Call, RealClearPolitics, The New York Times / Photo Credit: Hillary Clinton