US-China Stability: A False Promise?
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US-China Stability: A False Promise?
- US-China relations during Donald Trump's second term have been characterized by an uneasy quietness, with both governments referring to it as "constructive strategic stability."
- Jonathan A. Czin, a former Director for China at the National Security Council from 2021 to 2023, argues that this perceived stability is a false promise.
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During Donald Trump’s second term, U.S.-Chinese relations have entered a period described by both nations as “constructive strategic stability.” However, some analysts, including Jonathan A. Czin, Michael H. Armacost Chair in Foreign Policy Studies at the Brookings Institution’s China Center, suggest this stability is superficial and potentially misleading. Czin, who previously served as Director for China at the National Security Council from 2021 to 2023, has been a prominent voice on U.S.-China dynamics.
The current state of affairs follows a period where the U.S. Supreme Court, in February 2026, struck down tariffs on China and other trade partners that were implemented under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA). This ruling impacted tariffs, including a 10% “fentanyl” tariff and a 10% reciprocal tariff on Chinese goods. In response to ongoing concerns, the U.S. Trade Representative (USTR) proposed new tariffs ranging from 10% to 12.5% on goods from mainland China and Hong Kong in June 2026, stemming from a Section 301 investigation into forced labor. China is expected to view these new tariffs as a violation of a framework agreement established after an October meeting between President Trump and President Xi Jinping.
Despite these economic tensions, a visit by President Trump to Beijing is scheduled for March 31 to April 2, offering an opportunity to de-escalate tensions and potentially forge a broader trade agreement. The concept of “strategic stability” itself is interpreted differently by Washington and Beijing. For Washington, it often implies risk reduction between rival powers, while Beijing views it with broader political implications, expecting the U.S. to respect China’s core interests and manage disputes within limits acceptable to them